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The Bezos Effect: 3 Big Things Corporate Boards Need to Do About Succession Planning

Many successful leaders tend to be nonconformists. They often demonstrate individualism at an early age and aren’t afraid to break a few rules. It’s part of what makes them so successful. But their risk-taking behavior, especially in their personal lives, can present unique challenges for the boards that manage their companies. 

What would happen to a company’s business plan or board of directors if, say, the Chairman of the Board decided to take a rocket ship into space? Or, a board member faced a health concern that changed everything? 

A recent NPR segment, Corporate Boards Find It Difficult To Limit Executives’ Risk-Taking Hobbies, highlighted these questions and the critical need for corporate boards to plan for inevitable, albeit unpredictable, change. While succession planning isn’t going to grab any juicy headlines, it is the tried and true method for mapping the long-term viability of a company.

So how does your organization get started on this journey? Here’s a hint – You don’t have to touch the edge of space to get going. Here are the three big things corporate boards need to do about succession planning right now.  

CREATE: Creating a written succession plan is the first step to providing stability to the organization during times of crisis and change. This will be a living, breathing document that will be updated over time, but the first charge is to outline the steps that the board will take to fill a position whether it was vacated due to an emergency or a planned departure.  

IDENTIFY:  Identify potential leaders both inside and outside the organization who align with your corporate goals to fill these vacated positions. Viewing this process as a way to develop and mentor strong leaders for your organization will also get the board motivated to make progress on this step.

MEASURE:  Measure your progress by holding outgoing interviews with retiring or exiting board members. I also recommend an annual board performance assessment that is both self-reflective and evaluated by fellow board members. Ongoing policy review and analysis will ensure that the succession plan is executable. Making succession planning a mandatory annual agenda item for discussion at board meetings is key.

Policy adherence begins at the top and the board must lead by example. Proactive succession planning puts your organization and your stakeholders at ease no matter what arises…..even if it’s a rocket ship.

 

All investment and financial opinions expressed are intended as educational material.  Advisory products and services offered by Investment Adviser Representatives through Prime Capital Investment Advisors, LLC (“PCIA”), a federally registered investment adviser. PCIA: 6201 College Blvd., 7th Floor, Overland Park, KS 66211. PCIA doing business as Prime Capital Wealth Management (“PCWM”) and Qualified Plan Advisors (“QPA”). Securities offered by Registered Representatives through Private Client Services, Member FINRA/SIPC. PCIA and Private Client Services are separate entities and are not affiliated.

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Week-in-Review: Week of 07.16.21

The Bottom Line

● U.S. equities fell for the first time in four weeks. All the major US equity indices posted a negative return for the week, but still maintain healthy year to date figures.
● The 10-Year yield started the week on the upswing but couldn’t cross the 1.42 level. Ultimately, it resumed it’s decline and ended the week down -7 bps, settling at 1.29.
● The markets had plenty of economic news to digest this week with June inflation data releases, retail sales, labor market reports, and major US banks kicked off earnings season.

Dog Days of Summer

Markets are traditionally tepid during the summer months, and this summer might fall victim to the adage of the “Dog Days of Summer”. The S&P started the week just as it finished last week, carrying an increase of +0.49% up to Wednesday. This didn’t last as inflation metrics came out higher than expected and above consensus estimates on retail sales weren’t able to revive the indices on Friday. The Russell took the brunt of the selling pressure, posting a -5.12% loss for the week. Major US banks reported their earnings, top line numbers were propped up by robust investment banking division revenues, but other segments couldn’t boast similar results. Concerns over the spread of the delta variant continued to weigh on European equities with the STOXX 600 posting a -0.64% loss for the week. After a difficult week last week, Japanese equities were able to post a modest gain of +0.22% for the week. Volatility wasn’t only present in the equity markets, the 10-year yield sent investors on a ride with rates pushing higher at the beginning of the week, but the 10-year wasn’t able to surpass the 1.42 level and finally ended the week down -7bps to 1.29 as investors searched for a haven.

Digits & Did You Knows

IT’S DIFFERENT — The Federal Reserve measures inflation using the “Personal Consumption Expenditures” (PCE) price index while the government uses the “Consumer Price Index” (CPI) for the “cost of living adjustment” (COLA) to increase Social Security retirement benefits. The CPI gives “housing” prices a 42.1%weighting in its calculation, while the PCE gives “housing” just a 22.6% weighting. The CPI gives “medical care” prices an 8.8%weighting in its calculation, while the PCE gives “medical care” a 22.3% weighting. (source: Federal Reserve, BTN Research).
NOT JUST KIDS — 19% of Americans that have outstanding student loan debt from college are over age 50, i.e., 8.7 million borrowers out of 44.7 million total borrowers. (source Federal Reserve Bank of New York, BTN Research).

Click here to see the full review.

Source: Bloomberg. Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange‐traded funds recommended by the Prime Capital Investment Advisors. The performance of those funds may be substantially different than the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. U.S. Bonds (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐YieldBond(iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays International Corporate Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 ValueETF);MidGrowth(iSharesRussell Mid‐CapGrowthETF);MidValue (iSharesRussell Mid‐Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by: 30% U.S. Bonds, 5% International Bonds, 5% High Yield Bonds, 10% Large Growth, 10% Large Value, 4% Mid Growth, 4%Mid Value, 2% Small Growth, 2% Small Value, 18% International Stock, 7% Emerging Markets, 3% Real Estate.

Advisory services offered through Prime Capital Investment Advisors, LLC. (“PCIA”), a Registered Investment Adviser. PCIA doing business as Prime Capital Wealth Management (“PCWM”) and Qualified Plan Advisors (“QPA”).

© 2021 Prime Capital Investment Advisors, 6201 College Blvd., 7th Floor, Overland Park, KS 66211.

 

Blog Market Commentary Quarterly Client Update

Q2 Quarterly Client Update

 

And the beat goes on…

Essentially treading water for the first half of the quarter, markets found their footing and finished positive across every major asset class.  Continued vaccination success, massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus, solid economic activity, and earnings acceleration all contributed to the investor optimism that witnessed the S&P 500 deliver positive quarterly results for the fifth consecutive quarter, which is the longest consecutive streak since the nine-quarter stretch that ended in 2017.  Though many of the quarter’s headlines centered around fear-invoking risks like inflation and sooner than expected modifications to the Fed’s accommodative policy, the markets appeared unphased as concerns of growth moderation sent yields lower and equities higher.  While still lagging other major US equity markets year-to-date with a return of 12.54%, as markets shifted toward higher quality, the more interest-rate sensitive and growth-oriented NASDAQ led the charge with a second-quarter return of 9.49%, as compared to returns on the S&P 500 of 8.55% and 15.25% for the quarter and year, respectively.  While only delivering returns of 4.29% in the second quarter, US small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 index, garnered solid returns for the year of 17.54%, only to be outdone year-to-date by the S&P MidCap 400 return of 17.59%.

With uneven COVID containment across emerging market countries, along with varying degrees of inoculation success, surging commodity prices, and falling US yields, the MSCI Emerging Market Index delivered a positive return of +5% in the second quarter; bringing the year’s return across developing countries to 7.4%.  Conversely, foreign developed countries (primarily Europe and Japan) continue to lag the US in vaccine rollout progress, though France and Germany are approaching 50% of their populations receiving at least one inoculation.  Rising concerns over the Delta variant continue to threaten the near-term recovery.  Fortunately, recent vaccination success and easing of some travel restrictions drove the cyclical heavy MSCI EAFE Index (Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials make up more than 40% of the index) +5.2% for the period, bringing the total for the year to +8.8%

Despite high levels of inflation reported over the quarter, long-term inflation expectations are actually down on average.  When coupled with an overly accommodative and reassuring Fed, along with the looming fiscal cliff and Delta variant posing risks to the expansion, the market witnessed the yield on the 10-Year Treasury contract about 30 basis points (0.30%) to end the second quarter at 1.45%; still up more than 0.50% for the year.  While the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields pushed the return on the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index up 1.8% for the quarter, the index remains down -1.6% for the year.

Economy

Though first quarter GDP accelerated at a 6.4% rate, the US still sat below its pre-pandemic growth levels.  Massive amounts of Congressional and monetary stimulus continued to drive economic activity back into positive territory in the second quarter.  The Conference Board forecasts that US Real GDP in the second quarter will rise to a 9.0% annualized rate and 6.6% year-over-year for 2021.  While Bloomberg forecasts have moderated in recent weeks, they’re still anticipating second-quarter growth of 10% (from 11% in March), and 7.2% for 2021 (from 7.7% in March).  Growth of 7.2% for the year would be the fastest annual rate since the economy surged out of the 1981-1982 recession.  With the effects of the March Congressional stimulus package fading, several key economic indicators have demonstrated some recent softening.   While consumer spending was robust in the first quarter (up +11.4%, according to Bloomberg), we’ve witnessed a normalization in retail spending in both April and May.  Furthermore, as the economy has continued to reopen, consumers have started to shift their spending preferences away from goods and more toward experiences and services, like dining out and traveling.  In general, consumers appear poised to drive significant pent-up demand, as evidenced by their elevated savings of 14.9% (more than double the post-Great Financial Crisis average), unprecedented consumer net worth, and an M2 Money Supply of more than four trillion dollars above average levels – up 18% year-over-year, and 30% higher since February 2020.  Given that the consumer comprises roughly 70% of our economy’s output, spending should serve as a significant driver for economic growth for the remainder of the year. That spending should be supported further in the intermediate term from both the monthly child tax credit payments that are going out this month, coupled with the eventual spend-down of excess savings.

The Fed, Inflation, and Labor Market

Over the course of 2021, equity markets have become increasingly more dependent on overly accommodative central bank policy, where Fed policy appears priced to perfection and risks of a policy mistake appears more likely than not, hence the flattening yield curve.  Though continually pressured, the Federal Reserve has remained resolute in their current policies and messaging, maintaining their accommodative stimulus through open-ended Quantitative Easing (QE4) and keeping rates historically low. This “anything it takes” mentality has seen the Fed’s balance sheet balloon to more than $8 trillion, with no real signs of slowing. The Fed is currently purchasing $120 billion ($80 billion US Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities) per month and has indicated the intent to maintain this pace through 2021 and possibly into 2022, before beginning to taper their purchases.  As we’ve communicated in the past, taper does not mean that the Fed will halt buying bonds; it means that they will slow the pace of their purchases. Tapering could reduce purchases from $120 billion per month to approximately $100 billion per month in a transparent and well-communicated manner.  Perhaps the two most monumental changes coming out of the surprisingly hawkish June Federal Open Market Committee was the mention of “talking about talking about tapering” and revising their projection for rate increases from 2024 to 2023.  The Fed continues to communicate that their decisions will hinge on actual data and not forecasted data. In the third quarter of last year, the Fed changed its policy framework to achieve 2% inflation and adopted a soft, or flexible, inflation averaging approach.  This soft approach would hypothetically allow inflation to run above 2% for an undisclosed period, as long as the average falls back 2% over the long run. With so much emphasis on inflation, what’s often overlooked is the Fed’s dual mandate to both average their 2% inflation target and their commitment to achieving “substantial further progress” toward the goal of maximum employment.

Inflation measures the rate of increase in prices of goods over a given period, and high inflation levels can damage productivity and economic growth.  Last year, prices fell in March and April and remained low in May, creating a low base for future year-over-year readings – resulting in price level changes that might be slightly exaggerated. But in looking at the economic data, it’s hard to deny inflation currently exists.    The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a prominent measure of inflation, witnessed Headline CPI come in at 5% and 5.4% in May and June, respectively, which are the highest readings since 2008.  After stripping out the more volatile food and energy components, the Core CPI registered its highest reading since 1991, 3.8% and 4.5% for the same respective months.  While the increases in the basket of goods measured in the CPI in April, May, and June did include some noise resulting from the base effect, most of the price increases have been a result of significant supply chain disruptions, coupled with a significant surge in demand.  During the pandemic, inventory levels were significantly depleted, and once the economy began to reopen, demand surged, causing a bottleneck in the supply chains.  Many consumers have felt this if they’ve tried buying a car, buying a house, or even building a deck.  This type of supply chain disruption is relatively normal during recovery periods and can be seen as mostly transitory.  Therein lies much of the debate around inflation – will it be transitory (temporary) or structural (sticky)?  When looking at the most recent two CPI reports, more than half of the total increase in Core CPI can be attributed to used cars, rental cars, hotels, and airfare.  These small categories only represent a combined total of Core CPI of about 6%.  Their large price jumps are due to reopening and supply chain disruptions, both temporary, or transitory.  Conversely, the larger components like rent and healthcare represent roughly 49% of Core CPI and have experienced only modest price gains; though the two consecutive readings of 0.3% for rents is worth noting and will be important to monitor going forward.  One of the major issues causing disruptions across nearly every economic sector is semiconductor, or chip, shortages.  Our everyday lives have become dependent on chips; they’re found in nearly everything from automobiles, dishwashers, phones, computers, to microwaves, etc. Through May, the average order-to-delivery interval reached all-time highs of 18 weeks.  In other words, if a single chip was ordered in May, it took 18 weeks for that single chip to be delivered – hence the severe disruption in production and significant spike in new and used car prices.

Over the coming months, perhaps the most telling variable to monitor for clarity around inflation’s transitory or structural nature will be wage growth. It’s difficult for inflation to be sticky or structural without upward wage pressure. June’s 3.6% year-over-year wage growth is worth noting, though not overly concerning. Should the labor market start to exhibit the same pricing power as we’ve witnessed in commodities, we could witness a wage/price spiral, causing yields to normalize quicker than anticipated and indicating inflation might last longer than expected. When wages increase, businesses must increase the cost they charge for their goods and services to compensate for the higher wages, adding to inflationary pressures. If prices remain elevated, workers will eventually demand another wage increase to offset the increase in their cost of living – making inflation more structural. To correct the labor shortages and hire workers to meet surging demands, employers are getting creative to hire and retain workers, including higher wages. Several retailers, like Walmart, have raised their internal minimum wages to $15 per hour or more. Once these changes are made, an employer can’t reduce employees’ salaries, making these changes more permanent. Additionally, during first-quarter corporate earnings announcements, nearly every announcement mentioned inflation and the rising input costs applying pressure to their margins, and furthermore, their intentions to pass those increased costs along to consumers. Much like wage increases, if a company can successfully pass along cost increases, and consumers are willing to pay those higher prices, then once supply chain disruptions normalize and their cost of goods fall in line, many companies are not willing to slash consumer prices – again making inflation more structural and stickier than transitory and temporary.

We partially agree with the Fed and Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen that the current supply chain disruptions will start to work out, and price gains will start to normalize.  We believe that inflation will be transitory in the sense that it should start to moderate sometime in the third or fourth quarter of this year from its current levels.  However, we also think that we could be headed for a regime change in future inflation.  In other words, the post-Great Financial Crisis inflation averaged less than 2%, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the next several years running closer to the 3% range.  Outside of that view, when looking at the June CPI numbers of 5.4% and 4.5% on Headline and Core, respectively, it’s understandable investors are fearful.  However, we are still dealing with some base effects, which are causing overstated numbers.  This same base effect will also impact year-over-year CPI data as we approach the second and third quarters of next year, except then we’ll experience a reverse base effect.  This time next year, the base will be these elevated inflation results currently being reported, which could produce negative year-over-year CPI readings.  Given the cliff experienced during the heart of the pandemic, followed by sharp V- shaped reversals, we anticipate several variables to suffer from base effects for at least another year or so, continuing to insert noise into the data.  When looking at the metrics closer, about 50% of the components tracked in the CPI basket that contributed to growth came from transitory components like buying used cars (up 45% YoY) and dining away from home.  Therefore, as production comes back online, many supply chain disruptions should dissipate and lead to a moderation in inflation.

The rest of the Quarterly Update covers the Federal Reserve, Congressional Stimulus, and other Implications moving forward. Read more.

The preceding commentaries are (1) the opinions of Chris Osmond and Eric Krause and not necessarily the opinions of PCIA, (2) are for informational purposes only, and (3) should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. Investing involves risk. Depending on the types of investments, there may be varying degrees of risk. Investors should be prepared to bear loss, including total loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Advisory services offered through Prime Capital Investment Advisors, LLC. (“PCIA”), a Registered Investment Adviser. PCIA: 6201 College Blvd., 7th Floor, Overland Park, KS 66211. PCIA doing business as Qualified Plan Advisors (“QPA”) and Prime Capital Wealth Management (“PCWM”).

Education Featured Articles

Qualified Plan Advisors: July Advocate Newsletter

United States Supreme Court to Hear Excessive Fee Case

We have experienced a fair amount of retirement plan litigation over the last decade. The litigation pace picked up during the COVID-19 pandemic and shows no signs of slowing down. That pace could accelerate, in fact, if the United States Supreme Court rules that plaintiffs can proceed in the Hughes v. Northwestern University suit. Although the Court will not hear oral arguments until October at the earliest, it is important for plan fiduciaries to be aware of its potential implications.

The Complaint. The nation’s most prominent ERISA litigation firm filed suit on behalf of participants in Northwestern University’s defined contribution plans. The complaint included many of the allegations common among recent retirement plan expense lawsuits, including: (i) excessive recordkeeping fees; (ii) the failure to benchmark the recordkeeping fees; and (iii) the use of expensive share classes when cheaper share classes of the plans’ investment options were also available.

Motion to Dismiss. The next part is critical: we’re not even to the point in the litigation process when the trial court would decide whether those allegations were valid. The trial court granted the defendants’ motion to dismiss, and the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the dismissal. The plaintiffs asked the United States Supreme Court to hear their argument that the lower courts erred in dismissing the case. This request relies upon precedent in other Federal circuits that would have allowed the plaintiffs’ case to proceed to discovery.

Supreme Court Takes the Case. Before responding to that request, the Court asked the Solicitor’s Office to provide the Department of Labor’s (DOL’s) position regarding the split in the federal circuit courts and the significance of the issues. The Solicitor’s Office filed a brief reflecting its clear belief that plaintiffs should be allowed to pursue their claims and that “the question of what ERISA requires of plan fiduciaries to control expenses is important to millions of employees throughout the Nation whose retirement assets are invested in ERISA-governed plans.”  The Court “granted certiorari” – thereby agreeing to receive arguments from both parties – because of the split in federal circuits’ approach and the significance of the issue.

Why Does This Case Matter? Well, it is certainly important to the plaintiffs and defendants involved in the lawsuit. But more broadly, it’s important because the most pivotal point in these large lawsuits is whether a plaintiff can survive a motion to dismiss. If it survives the motion, the looming threat of discovery is much more likely to motivate settlement negotiations. If plaintiffs cannot survive that motion, the case falls apart, and the dream of a settlement or courtroom victory goes up in smoke.

The Court is likely to establish the clearest set of principles dictating what is – and what is not – sufficient for plaintiffs to survive a motion to dismiss in a retirement plan fee lawsuit. The Court will not offer an opinion on the plaintiffs’ claims; it will simply determine whether they receive their day in court to present those claims.

What Should Fiduciaries Do Now? It would be reasonable for fiduciaries to decide not to wait for the Court’s opinion, which likely will not arrive until 2022. If the Court supports the plaintiffs’ perspective, plaintiffs will be able to move forward. Even if it does not, the DOL has shared its opinion on this type of fact pattern, and it’s quite clear the DOL is sympathetic with plan participants.

As we look around the country, the last decade of litigation has paid dividends for many plan participants. Yet many others continue to participate in plans with recordkeeping services that have not been benchmarked and/or investment options that are more expensive than they need be. Taking into account the Court’s upcoming consideration of these issues and the DOL’s position, we anticipate many plan fiduciaries will ramp up their due diligence efforts during the back half of this year. As always, those efforts shouldn’t focus too heavily on the cheapest option, but they should be on the lookout for value. Participants and fiduciaries will benefit as a result.

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Week-in-Review: Week ending in 07.09.21

The S&P 500 and Dow couldn’t advance for a third week in a row, but small cap stocks were able to extend their streak to three. The Russell 2000 small cap index has gained about +16% in November. For the second week in a row, markets opened on news of a promising new vaccine, only to fade as the week wore on after new coronavirus cases in the U.S. continued to surge and new lockdown measures were announced by various state and local officials.

Month in Reveiw

Month in Review: June 2021

COVID cases swell. U.S. daily coronavirus cases increased throughout October to over 80,000 per day, much of the increase came from the mid‐west.  Hospitalizations and ICU utilization are both rising as well. Even worse than the increase in the U.S., the resurgence in Europe has been especially pronounced, triggering a new restrictions there.

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After-Tax Contributions – An Old Idea to Solve a Modern Problem

Employees in America are stressed about money.  71% suffer from some level of stress related to their personal finances. Even before the pandemic, 38% of employees didn’t have $1,000 saved up to cover emergency expenses. And 63% have indicated that their stress has increased since the onset of COVID-19. [1] So, what can employers do to help their employees?

Sometimes to solve modern problems, you don’t have to innovate, but simply repurpose old ideas. You see, before 401(k) plans became law in the early 1980s, many employees had access to something called a “thrift plan” as part of their benefits package.  These programs allowed employees to save money directly from their paycheck on an after-tax basis into an account, and the earnings would grow tax-deferred. So, how does this help your employees and why is it different from other 401(k) or 403(b) contributions?

After-tax contributions (also called Employee Contributions) enable employees to contribute money to your plan that is easily accessible to them.  Unlike pretax and Roth contributions dollars, which are only available for withdrawal under limited circumstances, after-tax contribution dollars can be withdrawn at any time. Since the contributions have already been taxed before they’re deposited, the only taxes paid are on the earnings attributable to the after-tax dollars. Plus, since they are contributed to the plan via payroll deduction, just like your other plan contributions, they’re easy to use, making them a nearly ideal way to help the average employee build up an emergency savings fund.

After-tax contributions are also quite versatile, bringing with them an additional benefit to higher paid employees.  While pretax and Roth contributions are subject to an annual cap (i.e., $19,500 for 2021 and $26,000 for those age 50 and over)[2], after-tax contributions are not subject to that limit.  Rather they are only subject to the annual plan additions limit, which caps aggregate contributions to defined contribution plans (i.e., $58,000 for 2021, or $64,500 if age 50 or over)[3]. Once an employee reaches the $19,500 limit for the year, they may still contribute to the plan on an after-tax basis. The real magic though comes in the next step.  You see, if your plan allows, employees can elect to convert any of their contributions to Roth at any time during the plan year.  Employees who make after-tax contributions to the plan and aren’t otherwise interested in taking any future withdrawals from these dollars could instead immediately convert them to Roth contributions, avoiding accumulating any taxable earnings and making them all tax-free at retirement.

Now it’s important to keep in mind that any after-tax contributions are subject to the annual Actual Contribution Percentage (ACP) test, even if you’re plan is safe harbored. However, if your plan employs automatic enrollment and your general employee population are funding after-tax contributions for emergency savings purposes, it’s increasingly unlikely to fail the ACP test.  Even if you do fail, most of the dollars refunded will likely be after-tax money anyway, making the refunds relatively benign.

After-tax contributions were forgotten by benefits professionals a long time ago.  It may be time to pull them out of the moth balls and repurpose them for a new generation of savers.

Advisory services offered through Prime Capital Investment Advisors, LLC (“PCIA”), a federally registered investment adviser. PCIA: 6201 College Blvd., 7th Floor, Overland Park, KS 66211. PCIA doing business as Prime Capital Wealth Management (“PCWM”) and Qualified Plan Advisors (“QPA”).

[1] PwC 9th Annual Employee Financial Wellness Survey©

[2] IRC Section 402(g)

[3] IRC Section 415(c)

Blog COVID-19

Week-in-Review: Week of 07.02.21

The Bottom Line

● U.S. equities reached more record highs after seven straight gains, it best winning streak in 10 months. It was the second straight week of gains for the S&P 500, which is now up in five of the last six weeks.
● The yield on the 10‐year U.S. Treasury dropped 10 basis points, closing at 1.42%. Meanwhile, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose above $75, hitting its highest level since 2018.
● Economic data continued to suggest solid expansion, with strong manufacturing and consumer confidence reports, as well as solid June jobs data that come in higher than expected, but with moderate wage gains.

Stocks rebound from last week’s fall

The S&P 500 posted another solid week of gains with seven consecutive winning sessions, its longest winning streak since August. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed +1.7% and the tech‐heavy Nasdaq Composite rose nearly +2%. The S&P 500 has now risen in five of the past six weeks, while the Nasdaq has gained in six of the past seven weeks. One weak spot for equities was small caps, as the Russell 2000 Index fell ‐1.2%for the week. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose above $75, hitting its highest level since 2018. Signs of solid economic growth continued with June U.S. manufacturing activity from both ISM and Markit coming in at historically high levels and well into expansion territory. Several major banks announced plans to return capital to shareholders in the form of increased dividends and share buybacks following last week’s successful stress test of the sector by the Fed. But the market was particularly enthused by a solid employment report for June that was released on Friday. June nonfarm payrolls easily topped economists forecast. Factory orders also topped estimates and consumer confidence hit its highest level since February 2020, before the pandemic.

Digits & Did You Knows

FEWER BABIES — Despite a year of lockdowns with our spouses/partners, the number of US births fell in 2020 to 3.6 million, the 12th decline in the last 13 years (source: CDC).
TRAVEL — When travel for vacations slowed in the summer of 2020, rental car companies sold off more than 500,000 rental cars just to survive, leading to a shortage of rental cars and higher prices in 2021 (source: CNN, BTN Research).
(POOL) HELP WANTED — U.S. cities don’t have enough lifeguards, e.g., Austin, TX is short 80% of its 750‐lifeguard goal for the summer of 2021. The pandemic shutdown put a freeze on training and certification programs for lifeguards (source: American Lifeguard Association, BTN Research).

Click here to see the full review.

Source: Bloomberg. Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange‐traded funds recommended by the Prime Capital Investment Advisors. The performance of those funds may be substantially different than the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. U.S. Bonds (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐YieldBond(iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays International Corporate Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 ValueETF);MidGrowth(iSharesRussell Mid‐CapGrowthETF);MidValue (iSharesRussell Mid‐Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by: 30% U.S. Bonds, 5% International Bonds, 5% High Yield Bonds, 10% Large Growth, 10% Large Value, 4% Mid Growth, 4%Mid Value, 2% Small Growth, 2% Small Value, 18% International Stock, 7% Emerging Markets, 3% Real Estate.

Advisory services offered through Prime Capital Investment Advisors, LLC. (“PCIA”), a Registered Investment Adviser. PCIA doing business as Prime Capital Wealth Management (“PCWM”) and Qualified Plan Advisors (“QPA”).

© 2021 Prime Capital Investment Advisors, 6201 College Blvd., 7th Floor, Overland Park, KS 66211.